What does it all mean?
A couple of random thoughts/rumors/musings for a Monday afternoon.
- Word from the McCain Iowa headquarters is that there has been an influx of phone calls and drop-ins as a result of the Register endorsement. While a lot of folks poo-poo how much that endorsement means to Republicans, you can't underestimate the value of it. McCain was the subject of positive conversations at Sunday afternoon basketball games, church functions, and brunches. Just because the MOST active Republicans loathe the Register doesn't mean everyone does, and McCain sure could use the couple extra boots on the ground that it sounds like he's getting in the wake of this endorsement
- What is the real effect of the King endorsement going to be? There are clear negatives for Huckabee, Romney, and Thompson. Consider:
- Huckabee- Certainly not nearly as back-breaking as it would've been had it been a Romney endorsement but it will hurt nonetheless. Thompson has had essentially an inverse relationship with Huckabee in Iowa polls. Huckabee's support has come directly from many folks that were with Thompson in August and September. Can the King endorsement, plus the negative mail/ads being aimed at Huckabee swing the pendulum back towards Thompson for some of these voters? Huckabee also has a stronghold in northwest Iowa. Might some people who feel strongly about the immigration issue in Sioux County switch their allegiance to Thompson?
- Romney- Clearly the Romney folks expected this endorsement, or at least thought there was a good chance they'd receive it based on King's comments last week. King certainly didn't repudiate Romney's record in his comments in the same way he did Rudy, Huck, and McCain's. Nonetheless for a guy looking to get the momentum back, this would have gone a long way...
- Giuliani- In the muddle for 3rd place, Thompson now looks significantly stronger. Can Giuliani really survive a 4th place finish in Iowa? That has to put a tarnish on his national stature right.
- How strong is Mike Huckabee? Word from multiple sources polling the state show him with a substantial lead in Polk County. If he's strong near Des Moines, he's got to be SUPER strong in rural Iowa. One source said that their internal "Hard ID's" show Huckabee with a substantial lead in the state's largest county.
Chew on that for a while Coolerites, we'll be back.
The Cooler Line
Mike Huckabee 10-9
Mitt Romney 3-1
Fred Thompson 9-1
John McCain 9-1
Rudy Giuliani 12-1
Ron Paul 12-1
Duncan Hunter 98-1
The Cooler line is an exclusive creation of Caucus Cooler and will be updated as the political environment changes.
It is an unscientific assessment of the Iowa Caucus (not the Presidential race as a whole) from an insiders view at the given time. The line IS NOW mathematically accurate but is NOT intended for gambling purposes. Information may only be reproduced with credit to the Caucus Cooler.