Final Line Change
Its been a blast everybody.
The Favorite
Mike Huckabee- 10-9. Hard to see him being stopped in the Hawkeye tomorrow.
The Juggernaut
Mitt Romney- 3-1 Can his organization bring him an upset?
The Comeback Kid
John McCain- 9-1, SRSLY? From nowhere McCain has resurrected his campaign. Kudos to Roederer and crew.
The Lazy Conservative
Fred Thompon- 9-1 Coinflip with McCain for 3rd. His organization will have to make the difference. But why would they be motivated to when the candidate spent New Years Day on the couch?
The Nut
Ron Paul- 12-1. Apparently there is a bigger white supremacist, chritianist, anti-Iraq War, pro-gold standard crowd than we had realized in Iowa.
The Mystery Collapser
Rudy Giuliani- 12-1 The wheels came off at the wrong time.
The Other Guy
Duncan Hunter 98-1 I have nothing to say about him.
Back with our official R and D predictions in the AM.
posted by Caucus Cooler at 1/02/2008
6 Comments:
Cooler,
You know I love you. But anything less than a 95% chance of either Romney or Huckabee winning the caucuses makes me think you haven't stopped the new years eve revelry.
Huckabee just hit it out of the park on the Jay Leno show. Loved the dig at Romney for his attempt to buy the election with smear ads.
oleoleole,
Can you cite anything from a Romney ad which was factually incorrect?
He was a lot more honest than Huckabee, who attacked Romney for not executing people in a state that doesn't have the death penalty.
Devon..
Yes.. Masschusetts laws on meth are LESS stringent than Arkansas are.
The "reduced penalty" in Arkansas was a requirement that meth manufacturers serve 50 percent of their sentence rather than 70 percent before being eligible for parole. In Arkansas, the average meth dealer spends an average of 10years in prison.
In contrast, the source quoted in the Romney ad that claimed Romney "got tough" on drugs notes, "The punishment would be either 2 1/2 years in jail or five years in prison."
Let's compare: Under Huckabee, 10 years; Under Romney, 5 years
Lets see thats ONE factually incorrect claim.
The ad also states that Romney "never pardoned a single criminal." But this begs the question: how many clemency cases did he actually review while he was governor of Massachusetts? Or did he simply avoid his responsibility as chief executive of the state to review clemency cases and give petitioners a fair hearing?
The ad also points out that Governor Huckabee granted more clemencies than the "previous three governors…combined."
It doesn't mention that two of the previous three governors were Bill Clinton and convicted felon Jim Guy Tucker. Governor Huckabee's clemency rate, however, was in line with other governors who have served the state.
Romney also fails to acknowledge that in Arkansas, every person who is convicted of a crime and every person in prison is eligible for clemency. Because of this, the number of clemency applications is extraordinarily high. Governor Huckabee had 8,698 applications during his 10 ½ years in office.
Some Governors are content to simply deny the vast majority of clemency applications without bothering to consider their merit.
Governor Huckabee, however, believed that respect for the legal process required that he give them the consideration for which they were entitled.
During his tenure, Governor Huckabee denied 88 percent of the applications.
Before granting clemency, the Governor issues a notice of intent and opens a 30-day public comment period in which people can protest the decision. Very rarely does the public oppose a clemency because almost all are granted for minor offenses, involve reductions in fines, or reduced prison sentences that were longer than the average for a particular crime.
During the 10 ½ years Mike Huckabee was governor the number of government agencies and businesses that conducted background checks increased at an incredible rate. The terrorist acts of September 11, 2001, have resulted in increased concerns regarding security. Potential job candidates and long-time employees considered for promotion are under increased scrutiny.
Before the mainstream use of background checks, most people could have some youthful arrest, change their lives and become good, tax-paying citizens without that earlier arrest coming back to haunt them.
Governor Huckabee found during his time in office that each year the number of people needing clemency to clear their record increased. Denying their request prevented them from continuing to earn a good living and pay taxes. The majority of the clemency requests he granted were for this reason.
So Devon..we can keep going on and on about how misleading and plain dishonest that Romney has been...
Gee, 9:42, way to not reference your source. That's lifted straight from Shcmukabee's playbook.
First, Romney toughened MA meth laws. Huckabee loosened AK meth laws. That's a fact. You can point out that the end results still left AK tougher than MA, but that is due to the states themselves and the situations facing the governors when they came into office. What is important is what each Governor did.
Romney got tough on meth. Huckabee gave meth dealers breaks.
And you can spin it all you like, but Huckabee pardoned and commuted twice as many felons as his three predecessors combined. He also pardoned and commuted more felons than every border state touching AK, which had 16 times the population.
So yes, the facts are that Huck is weak on crime.
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