Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Utah on my mind

It looks as if the Primary calendar will place a lasrge emphasis on 3 western states: Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico...While Utah is thought to be Romney country for obvious reasons, John McCain is not going down without a fight. Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. joined the straight talk express today according to a report by Chris Cilizza and others..

Also, Adding to our Presidential calendar, George Pataki is doing an event for house candidate Tim Morgan as well as Doug Shull when he comes in Mid-August..

21 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wonder how the Romney campaign will try to spin their way out of this one...

2:26 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Straight Talk Express sound eerily like a freight train leaving the station....

2:35 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

well McCain only has one person supporting him in Iowa (Larson) and he's paying him $7,500 per month. So, do the math as to how much winning Iowa will cost him.

War Mitt Romney

3:04 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

and paying to have Airhart and Flowers on your team is a great investment?? Wow, I thought BR would be better than this...

3:08 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Romney is such a fraud. He would be better off selling food dehydrators on an infomercial.

3:18 PM  
Blogger Caucus Cooler said...

We said UTAH on our mind.. Boy you guys are fiesty today..

5:26 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow, McLame is really scared of Mitt. You can tell by all the anon trash posts. Well here's one for them. Bob Dole was a great American hero that ran for prez too many times, especially one too many times past his prime and we lost big for it. The GOP won't let that happen again with McCain.

6:10 PM  
Blogger Jeff Fuller said...

I posted this response over at Krusty. I'm not a Romney Campaign guy . . . just a fan/grassroots supporter.

Here is the article that is being discussed.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/18/AR2006071801570.html?referrer=emailarticle

Here's my spin:

What's the big deal about Huntsman supporting McCain? It is not a "huge blow" and it WILL negate the argument that Mormons will blindly line up behind Romney just because he's LDS.

Romney will win Utah hands down. It won't even be close (and yes, I've seen the "cold-call" polls where McCain is beating Romney--by the slimmest margin of any state I might add. Most "everyday folks" in Utah still don't realize that Romney's a serious contender). Huntsman's political influence outside of Utah is not great.

Huntsman Jr. won't even be able to direct his billionaire dad's fortune to McCain since he's pretty excited about Romney.

This alliance with McCain is about an understandable "self-interest" on Huntsman's part. McCain's absolutely a top-tier candidate (who I could never support in a primary with the current alternatives)and he has a great chance of becoming POTUS. Notice how in the article Huntsman is posturing in the immigration/foreign policy areas. Huntsman is a former ambassador to Singapore and is fluent in Chinese. He is somewhat of a foreign policy expert on China and Southeast Asia, the next huge forefront of competition to our world dominance. I wouldn't be surprised if Huntsman's been promised a cabinet position by McCain for signing on board.

Well couldn't Romney promise the same kind of thing to Huntsman? People need to remember Romney will be reticent to fill up his cabinet with Mormons. Sec. of Health and Human Services Mike Leavitt (former Utah Gov. and a Mormon) is VERY tight with Romney. I see him playing a high ranking cabinet spot if Romney wins so there won't be much room for another Mormon Utah Governor. It's a calculated political risk by Huntsman.

Am I just spinning? Maybe. I would like to have Huntsman Jr. in Romney's camp assuring the locking up of the Huntsman fortune. Also, being endorsed by a governor is always nice. However, this is just a "speed bump" on Romney's road. It is not a "huge blow" and should not be seen as Huntsman rejecting Romney's policies, stances, and candidacy.

9:25 PM  
Blogger Yoda said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

9:42 PM  
Blogger Yoda said...

WAR Jeff Fuller

hmmmm.... He's just a damn smart guy, he is...





Had to delete, too many typos even for me.... Not easy being green....

9:43 PM  
Blogger Caucus Cooler said...

We agree that Huntsman is not a "huge blow" but the Romney folks must admit that a state that should be a cakewalk for Mitt looks more today like it could be a horserace..That's a significant development

12:20 AM  
Blogger Jeff Fuller said...

http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,640196187,00.html

Looks like the Utah reporters read my comments above . . . ;):

Quoting the article that just posted a few minutes ago:

"The governor's father, Jon Huntsman Sr., is one of Romney's biggest supporters.
"It was absolutely a surprise," said Kirk Jowers, head of the University of Utah's Hinckley Institute of Politics and legal counsel to Romney's Commonwealth PACs. "The Huntsman family, including the governor, have been extremely supportive of Gov. Romney."
According to a recent Deseret Morning News analysis, Jon Huntsman Sr. had given Romney's PACs nearly $130,000 and is the Romney committee's national finance co-chairman."

And then:

"It's no secret that McCain has actively courted Gov. Huntsman, presumably because he sees Gov. Romney as his biggest rival if they both get into the race," Jowers said. Still, he said, Romney shouldn't be hurt by not having the support of Utah's governor."

And later:

"This summer, McCain addressed the Utah GOP state convention at Huntsman's request.
There, McCain cited Huntsman as a rising star in the Republican party who he expected to do big things on a national, or even international, scale. For Huntsman, that could include serving in a GOP presidential administration.
But there's some suggestion a President Romney might be more cautious about appointing a fellow Mormon to a key role."

9:44 AM  
Blogger Jeff Fuller said...

I posted that above response at Krusty and on my blog. Believe me, I'm no insider and didn't coordinate my spin with the people quoted in the article (heck, I didn't talk to anyone about it.)

In response to Caucus Cooler, I don't think Utah "could be a horserace" as you state. (Actually, I guess if you use the word "could", then anything is possible . . . Romney could still screw up). But Hunstman is one person and one vote. I don't think he'll have that much sway in fighting against Romney. I see him supporting McCain, but not at the level of debasing Romney in the process.

The REAL STORY here is how scared McCain is of Romney . . . that he's been pursuing Huntsman for a while now . . . that he's offered him a prominent spot in his national campaign . . . that he's likely offered him a future cabinet position. McCain is a fighter and pushed hard for this "symbolic victory." However, this won't deliver him the state of Utah (again, just my impressions) and may look like a strong move, but may not get him much out of it in the end.

9:53 AM  
Blogger Caucus Cooler said...

As we have posted over at IFR and KK, we think that Jeff is right in one sense, this is not a "huge blow" or a death blow by any means. What it does mean is that McCain is a player in Utah and it's going to force Mitt to spend more time there than he would like. You would think that McCain will have Arizona so locked up that the others will ignore it; originally we felt the same way about Utah for Romney. That's not the case anymore though.

3:50 PM  
Blogger Jeff Fuller said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

10:04 PM  
Blogger Jeff Fuller said...

Here's the reply I left to you and another (more brusque) commentor over at IFR (who wrote: "So, if Romney can't lock down the Morman vote and 37% of Americans won't vote for a Morman, how does Mitt think he can win??."):

"There are nearly 6 million MormOns in the United states. Huntsman is one of them. Surely, all 5,999,999 of the others will vote for Romney.

Sounds absurd doesn't it? Just about as absurd as claiming that "Romney can't lock down the MormOn vote" because Huntsman doesn't support him. At least Huntsman has a reason to support McCain (again, this is not a sign that Huntsman is opposed to Romney . . . just that he has a strong vested interest in supporting McCain . . . like a prominent campaign position and/or future cabinet position.)

My personal impression from talking with/emailing hundreds of fellow Mormons about Romney is that there is EXTREME (even "OVERWHELMING") interest and support. However, the majority of LDS still don't know that Romney will be running for POTUS. Once he announces, you will see a change in the polling numbers, especially in Utah/Idaho/Wyoming/Nevada/Arizona with LDS populations of 72%/27%/11%, 7.1%/6.0% respectively . . . and don't forget to increase these percentages greatly for the percentage of registered Republicans that are Mormon (since I believe nearly 85-90% of LDS are Republican.)

Will it be a 100% lock for Romney amongst Mormon voters? Absolutely not (we are not that monolithic!) But I would geustimate at least 75-85% LDS support for Romney in the GOP primary and ~90-95%% in the general election. There will be hundreds of thousands of Mormons who will endorse/support other candidates. There will be thousands who actively denounce Romney based on personal/moral grounds. Are we going to hear this same argument each time any Mormon doesn't like Romney? If so, it's going to be a long and tedious campaign.

FWIW, Romney will also capture non-Republican Mormons. Of the handful of Mormon Democrats I know personally, ALL OF THEM so far are excited about a Romney candidacy (saying they'd vote for him in the general election or open primaries). One of them has even switched parties to help support Romney in the GOP primaries. Romney's 3rd highest donor thusfar is a Democrat (Kem Gardner). Mostly they are encouraged/impressed by his ability to maintain important values while getting things done amongst a liberal Democrat legislature in Massachusetts.

10:06 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The same Kem Gardner who supports Jon Huntsman and Gary Herbert?

What kind of Democratic supporter is that?

8:15 PM  
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