Haven't changed the line since Christmas Eve so here we go... There's a lot of action (and non-action) going on with candidates outside of the 2 leaders creating some movement.
As has been discussed at great length this week, Rudy is moving on his Iowa staff. While we don't have any confirmed members in state (Maria will be regional) he is clearly looking to play here. Given the most recent poll numbers that show him in a dead-heat with McCain and his initial strides towards an organization, we're moving him up a hair from 6-1 to 11-2.
Brownback keeps adding supporters and is solidifying himself as the CCA to beat. (we're using the acronym for credible conservative alternative from now on) Brownback from 15-1 to 14-1.
The big move this week comes from George Pataki. Everyone we've talked to that is a part of the Gang of 50 in this past week has indicated they no longer think Pataki is going to run. Ever since the mast exodus from Team Pataki that began in November the signs have been bad. Beginning with his trip to Iowa that was cancelled because of "weather," then having his best Iowa connection (Comella) go to his rival, and now not having any real Iowa presence at all. Pataki's stock is plummeting and so is his spot on the Cooler line. Pataki goes from 25-1 to 50-1. (This guy was 3rd on our line much of last year, ouch.)
Tommy Thompson made a trip to Iowa, got good press coverage, and is reported to be interviewing staff. Grubbs knows how to play the caucus game. And Tommy's committed to being here "at least one day a week." all year. We're still not sure what his constituency is but all other signs are looking up. Tommy goes from 40-1 to 35-1.
That's it for now.