Line Change!
Haven't changed the line since Christmas Eve so here we go... There's a lot of action (and non-action) going on with candidates outside of the 2 leaders creating some movement.
As has been discussed at great length this week, Rudy is moving on his Iowa staff. While we don't have any confirmed members in state (Maria will be regional) he is clearly looking to play here. Given the most recent poll numbers that show him in a dead-heat with McCain and his initial strides towards an organization, we're moving him up a hair from 6-1 to 11-2.
Brownback keeps adding supporters and is solidifying himself as the CCA to beat. (we're using the acronym for credible conservative alternative from now on) Brownback from 15-1 to 14-1.
The big move this week comes from George Pataki. Everyone we've talked to that is a part of the Gang of 50 in this past week has indicated they no longer think Pataki is going to run. Ever since the mast exodus from Team Pataki that began in November the signs have been bad. Beginning with his trip to Iowa that was cancelled because of "weather," then having his best Iowa connection (Comella) go to his rival, and now not having any real Iowa presence at all. Pataki's stock is plummeting and so is his spot on the Cooler line. Pataki goes from 25-1 to 50-1. (This guy was 3rd on our line much of last year, ouch.)
Tommy Thompson made a trip to Iowa, got good press coverage, and is reported to be interviewing staff. Grubbs knows how to play the caucus game. And Tommy's committed to being here "at least one day a week." all year. We're still not sure what his constituency is but all other signs are looking up. Tommy goes from 40-1 to 35-1.
That's it for now.
posted by Caucus Cooler at 1/05/2007
40 Comments:
What? Cox hasn't moved on the line? Shocker!!! LMFAO.
The Brownback Surge begins!
Where are Stew Iverson and Diane Crookham-Johnson these days? Are they still with Pataki?
Yes.
Why hasn't John Cox moved ahead of Pataki, who isn't even running
Because with no organization, a terrible camapaign, and the wrong message; Pataki will still manage to get more votes than Cox in the caucus.
At 50-1 we are saying that mathematically he has just under a 2% chance of winning.
The only reason he's there because he's at least capable of winning the caucus if a bunch of factors come into play (Rudy doesn't run being the biggest one).
Cox has no chance to win.
For a better understanding of how the Cooler line works mathematically, check here.
http://caucuscooler.blogspot.com/2006/08/we-are-stupid.html
I'm saying if Pataki drops out, will Cox at least be moved up to 997-1 instead 998-1?
for you Peter. We'll move him to 997-1 if Pataki drops out.
Hey, don't let the facts get in the way of your snarky comments, CC, and others.
John Cox just opened an office in Des Moines Thursday, has had staff on the ground *since May*, and has enthusiastic (volunteer) coordinators covering all 99 counties, and all the "insiders" give him is snark?
Well, I'm not surprised. Shilling for career politicians who have ruined the GOP and tearing down an outsider who can really make a positive change in this country is a full-time job, and I bet it pays well.
Frankly, Pataki, Huckabee, Thompson and several others on the list are more like 998-1 at this point.
Hey cox supporters.
zzzzzzz.
2:29 asks "Where are Stew Iverson and Diane Crookham-Johnson these days?"
How about completely irrelevant for starters.
I think Diane "Crook" Johnson is still trying to push her eminent domain stealing land from the little guy to give it to the big guy agenda with Doug Gross.
Stew just wants a job.
CC, can you please provide a list of all the offices John Cox has run for unsuccessfully and which of those endeavors VE were a part of?
Thanks
Cox is a joke; much like this Rathje that wants to run against Harkin. Please, it won't work. The last businessman/non-politician (not counting Ike, who was a war hero) to win the nomination was Wendell Willkie in 1940 and he had the backing of ALL the major media outlets of the time except the Chicago Tribune. Plus Willkie had been relevant in the national conversation regarding the New Deal for years prior to deciding to run for President. Please, Cox supporters, your man has no reason to be running.
Stop it all of you Cox supporters, I think I just choked on some of those Cox comments. Cox blows, face it. When he comes here no one cares. The press doesn't like Cox, the people don't like Cox, so I hope he has the balls to stand up and say: I suck.
OHHHH! Cox has an office now? So did Orin Hatch.
I hate it how some of you people like to bash a good man just because he wants to make a difference. I'd like to see how far any of you would get if you decided to run for President.
That being said, I hope everyone has a good weekend.
Go Giants!
:)
Call me crazy, but I expect my President to have actually done something in his life.
You Cox supporters are insulting the entire country by running such an unqualified candidate and lowering the fate of the nation to the same level as the rhetoric one would find in a county chairman race.
You sicken me.
Honestly, the Cox supporters should all read "The Way to Win in 2008" by Mark Halperin and understand that the reasons he can't win have nothing to do with elitism or cronyism.
To be a candidate for President you need to have been part of the national political debate or conversation. People need to see you as a person of substance and character before they see you as a candidate for President. Without being part of that debate/conversation you seem like an opportunist.
You also can't just throw out terms like "Reagan conservative" and hope they stick. Reagan was part of the national dialogue during Vietnam, became Governor of the largest state in the union, discussed issues on the biggest stages for a decade or more before he successfully ran. Reagan appealed to DEMOCRATS, independents, and Republicans. He wasn't an extremist by any means.
These are real reasons that prohibit outsiders from successfully running for President, this isn't snark.
But the Cox folks either don't understand or won't listen to these arguments, which is why in the end we resort to snark because it's just easier.
I think Cox found some Heine!
CC: Your vision of Reagan's America is way too small. And if you see a "Reagan Conservative" in the current line of "frontrunners" you have better eyes than any rank-and-file Republican activists across America.
There are legions of reasons why an outsider is needed in the Oval Office. If you think the careerist politicians - most of whom have done NOTHING with their lives except scrounge for special interest money and fall in love with power and perks for themselves and their families - then no, John Cox is not your candidate.
I'm sorry you and others here can't see this. I'm also realistic in knowing that most of the folks here are shilling for their own candidates, not fairly assessing the field. John Cox is a threat to the status quo, so I'm not surprised he's getting this reception from the "insiders."
If John Cox is an Orrin Hatch, as someone suggests here, so be it. I think he's more a Steve Forbes, or a Jack Kemp: Men of ideas who were mocked by the media and political elites, but who were actually right and deserved to win.
Sigh...
I guess we are going to just have to deal with these Cox employees... I mean staunch supporters (wink, wink).
I've got $50 that says he doesn't get more than 5 percent of the caucus vote.
Cox has much chance to win Iowa as McCain. McCain is hated in Iowa-really hated.
Giuliani is out of the mainstream to start with and he's hiring Nussle's most obnoxious employees so that's not going to sell well.
Gilmore's your man if you think the Second Amendment is important.
Good luck with that 2:43...
Cox doesn't have as much of a chance to win Iowa as McCain, but does anyone really think McCain is going to win Iowa?
I don't think he'll do well in Iowa. He's got a lot running against him here and South Carolina. McCain said terrible things about us 7 years ago, and that was before McCain Feingold and the deal on judges. I don't think he's gotten more popular since 00.
BTW
Gilmore's good on guns but Huckabee is the dark horse to beat in Iowa.
Since Reagan, we've had nothing but insiders and what good have they accomplished? Mike Huckabee and John Cox are the two best candidates on the Republican side because of their honesty and sincerity. The reason Cox hasn't been elected to any "big" office is because he lives in Illinois where the bosses and the machines control things.
And PLEASE, there's nothing wrong or insulting about an honest guy running for President because he is sick and tired of the status quo. I highly doubt that there are many people brave enough to do that in the face of certain defeat.
It's a free country, already!
POLITICS IS NOT JUST FOR POLITICIANS!!!
Remember the Constitution or the Declaration of Independance, anyone?
Cox is a loon on an ego trip. If he wants to make a difference, he should get some experience at the state level where people might be ready to take him seriously. He's not interested in that, he wants to be known as "John Cox, candidate for President" with his creepy children of the corn girls saying the pledge of allegiance all over the place... The guy's biggest political accomplishment so far is losing a county supervisor's race.
All you media-suck-ups keep talking about John Cox. Since he seems to be your priority he is obviously one of the frontrunners. Stop telling REAL Iowans who we support, because we support only John Cox.
When I think about John Cox's rivals (the insider politicians) I just start crying and masturbating at the same time because of what they have done to this country. This election is not about "the fate of the nation" it is about a return to Reagan values in the Republican Party.
Silverback:
When you say "Nussle's most obnoxious employees", do you mean:
1)The talented ones?
2)The most sought after?
or
3)The people that wouldn't hire you?
Crying and Masturbating?
Wow.
WOW there are sought after nussle people! If there are people seeking them they are dumber than the nussle people themselves and with throw this race away!
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Give Hagel some love! Iraq is an increasingly important issue and Republicans are now swinging his way.
How quickly does Hagel want to cut and run? Does his timetable for running away differ than the D's?
What! There were talented people there at the Nussle campaign? What happened then?
Obnoxious does not equal talented. Nor does being obnoxious cause you to be sought after, evidenced by certain names that can't be mentioned at the CC, NOT getting hired yet. Nor, are they usually the professional types that actually do the hiring.
Petty isn't pretty.
Obnoxious people usually are underlings for a reason.
Wow! Plenty of Nussle bashing going on it seems. It also seems that, based upon many posts, staff talent appears to be tied to a "failed" campaign. If that is truly the case, then perhaps we should take a closer look at Mitt's staff (I won't mention specific names for CC's sake).
He has staff from Vander Plaats, Brian Kennedy, Gross, etc. Some of these were not just as you call "failed" campaigns, but they were good old fashioned ass-kickins. You have praised his staff, yet most of them are all from campaigns that went down in flames.
Again, if we are all basing talent and skill on a failed campaign, which it appears that most of you are based on all the Nussle bashing posts, then it would only make sense that Mitt may be in for a rude awakening as well. Right?
Just curious on your thoughts. The Nussle comments are getting a bit old.
Let me clarify on the last post.
By "failed" campaigns, I mean lack of talent, not failed campaigns being associated with more talent.
Sorry; just wanted to be clear.
p.s. I'm certainly not bashing any staffers on Mitt's team. I know several of them personally and they are in fact great people, but I simply had to question all the negative posts and pose the question.
Good Day!
Its funny, people are clinging to Cox like he is a saviour of conservative values. Well, the platform and the man are two different things. I know Cox and his actions indicate a lack of integrity. Plain and simple. No compassion except for his checkbook. MHO, not a good human being. These people are following the idea of a person, not the person. It doesn't matter because his campaign will never generate enough interest to get invited to debates!
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