Monday, March 19, 2007

Line Change!

Alright Coolerites it has been a while since we’ve changed the Cooler Line so let’s get right to it.

Mitt Romney- Mitt has been in the lead or had a share of the lead since the inception of the Cooler Line and there’s been good reason for it. He was the first candidate to put together a ground game in Iowa, he spent a lot of money helping Iowa GOPers in 2006, and he’s secured key endorsements like Doug Gross and Chris Rants. The capable Gentry Collins is leading his Iowa organization. Recently he’s been a little quieter on the ground, but he’s added Stew Iverson, and gone up on TV in the Hawkeye state. With all the good things going on for Mitt, the problem is that his poll numbers and public perception have taken a bit of a hit. The media’s narrative of Mitt as a flip-flopper has saturated and it is mentioned in most news-stories about him. Also if you are going to advertise on TV you have to move in the polls. But for Mitt it’s not the horserace numbers that are concerning but the favorability ratings. While Giuliani and McCain have overwhelmingly favorable perceptions, Mitt’s is about 50/50. All in all, Mitt still looks very strong in Iowa, but not as strong as he did a couple weeks ago.
He goes from 3-1 to 7-2.

John McCain- The straight talker has now been to Iowa twice, holding 7 townhall meetings across the state. McCain’s positive’s in Iowa are clear. He has put in place all of the major pieces in President Bush’s Iowa organization. He has shown he’s going to be committed to playing here, with 2 trips (both of which he skipped Senate votes for) and a big Iowa staff. He also has drawn large crowds across the state and shown that he won’t be afraid to meet with Iowa conservatives, listen to their questions and tell them what he thinks. McCain’s poll numbers in the state also look better than they have elsewhere. The problem for McCain is that there is still a vocal contingent of conservatives who don’t trust him because of his maverick reputation, and the spector of Rudy’s gaudy poll numbers put a shadow on his trip. Team McCain also is still running neck and neck with Romney in the endorsement battle, but they haven’t been able to separate.
All these factors bring McCain down a half-step from 3-1 to 7-2

Rudy Giuliani- When we started writing this line-change our intent was to put Rudy in a 3 way tie with Romney and McCain. But the more we discussed around Cooler HQ we just couldn’t pull the trigger. Rudy hasn’t been in Iowa since November. He has to our knowledge only 2-3 staffers in the state. The Nussle endorsement was huge, but outside of that we’re forced to wonder, "where’s the beef." Rudy’s poll numbers are sky high. For that reason alone it’s impossible to place him any lower than we have. That said Rudy must prove that those poll numbers will stay high after he faces more scrutiny for his positions. He also has to prove to us at the Cooler that he is committed to putting together a winning Iowa organization. In the end though, polls don’t lie. Rudy goes from 5-1 to 4-1.

OK that was a lot longer than we thought it was going to be so here are the other candidates in brief.

Brownback and Huckabee stay pat for now.

Tommy Thompson is the one 2nd tier candidate who has shown he’s going to take Iowa very very seriously. As a result he moves from 35-1 to 28-1

Jim Gilmore isn’t acting like a candidate anymore. He moves down to 90-1.

George Pataki is out of the race as far as we’re concerned so we’re moving him OFF the Cooler line.

Chuck Hagel’s non announcement/announcement was just goofy. He moves up to 85-1 just because he seems a little more serious than Gilmore.

43 Comments:

Blogger Burton Rider said...

Wow.

So all that bad news about Mitt and he's at 7-2. And all that great news about McCain and he's also at 7-2.

Weird. It's amazing you guys are even still trying to sell this stuff as "analysis".

Any truth to the reports that McCain has raised over $40 million for this upcoming report?

6:59 PM  
Anonymous I'm not Yoda but said...

I agree with Burton.

7:19 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

You would think BR would be more positive about his candidate.

8:12 PM  
Blogger Caucus Cooler said...

Mccain had terrible press this weekend burton. Tar baby etc.. We complimented Mitt on his organization not his press. Thus his position on the line. Additionally our stated goal is reflecting conventional wisdom. Both the hotline and david yepsen have expressed similar views of your mans position in Iowa.

8:24 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Burton. Please explain to me why you are so obsessed with the expectations game. This is an honest post not a smart ass one.

It appears to me like Mitt must win Iowa or New Hampshire to be the nominee. I don't see how that is even disputable. It's also not disputable that he must finish in the top 3 in both states or he is done. In my mind expectations don't really matter. Either you are going to be able to win Iowa or New Hampshire or your not. What is downplaying your guys expectations going to do?

8:32 PM  
Blogger Burton Rider said...

8:32:

Anyone wanting the nomination will have to win some states. You think I don't get that?

9:16 PM  
Blogger Patrick Hamilton said...

What about Big Fred Thompson, he's acting as serious as Hagel, why wasn't he added?

11:34 PM  
Anonymous the one is here now bow down said...

Better be careful CC. The Mittheads will accuse you of being McCain supporters again.

7:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't think anyone needs to accuse them. Everyone knows who the CC is.

8:14 AM  
Anonymous Frank Stallone said...

As usual, the "expert" left out Frank Stallone from the odds - for fear of creating a panic.

It has been widely known Frank Stallone is sitting comfortably at 2-3. He has millions of dollars to spend in Iowa, and he will spend the hell out of it.

He is a born leader, dancer, singer and "dude". He can recite Ronald Reagan speeches from memory, and rarely misses a step while doing complicated dance moves. He has a killer collection of parachute pants and drinks Tab.

And man, can Frank Stallone draw a crowd. Last night he hosted a fundraising event where over 7500 attended. (none of this is true - not even close) Romney was PISSED! Again, he somehow got in to the $1000 per plate dinner and demanded a microphone and an interview. He might have been obliged had his outfit not been so crazy. He was wearing pink ballet slippers, and an old-fashioned jail inmate outfit (you know, the one with the stripes).

Security ended up having to escort him out. They coaxed him by giving him a Mr. Microphone, an old transistor radio, and a bag of ice.

Frank Stallone, feeling bad about the whole thing, took Romney to a fine mens clothing store and got him back to looking like Romney. He also bought him a new Cadillac Escalade.

What a night!

9:35 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

They do?! Who is it?

9:36 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yawn.

9:40 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'd like everyone to take note that neither Greiner, Slifka, Hurley, Woolsen, or Grubbs feel the need to come onto blogs and whine like a little girl when they don't get their way.

Burton does.

Take that for what you will, just an observation.

9:40 AM  
Blogger Yoda said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

10:05 AM  
Anonymous Yo Frank..give it a break huh? said...

Frank, I left krusty "kause" I got sick of your endless political drool...go slobber over someone else's blog and maybe this one won't smell like a full diaper pail from all the ridiculous stuff you post. Get a life and yo,we get it man, you have a low IQ, that was established in your first post, no need to become a repeat offender....

10:15 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks for the line change, why don't you schedule an update the day after the fundraising reports are public, should be VERY revealing.....

10:18 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

9:40 has the post of the day.

And who is this Yoda?

10:20 AM  
Anonymous our leader senor romney said...

Donde esta mi pantalones?

10:49 AM  
Anonymous FRANK!!! said...

Yo Frank..give it a break huh? said...,

Thank you for your muted admiration. Will you please be Frank Stallone's running mate? PLEASE?

Krusty stopped allowing posts because his site got polluted with bad language and tasteless/meaningless slams.

Frank Stallone running for President is nothing compared to the junk/trash/crap that was being posted by almost everyone on Krusty!

I read so much garbage and swear words of complete disrespect enough to make me sick! You saw it too - don't say you didn't. Good people were getting brutalized for no reason other than having an opinion and and articulating that opinion in a respectful manner.

SO, if you are sick of Frank Stallone - I am sorry - he is here to stay - it is harmless fun. I could be posting the "F" word all day long like the people on Krusty did.

Get used to it and embrace it.

FRANK STALLONE IN '08! It's been decided!

11:20 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

To Frank,

I can live with that. Just don't get a foul mouth, or i will turn on you.

I used to be a Krusty guy, but you are right, that place was a blood bath. Personally, i think it was people from one particular group who were making the site a joke. You couldnt even make a post without someone calling you every name in the book and insulting your mom.

Frank does not bother me - i htink it is funny.

11:30 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Frank Stallone for pres buisness is a hoax. Everyone knows that if the real Frank Stallone was running for pres he would do just as he does on his movie covers. GOP white house take over starring STALLONE as president. He may add later that it is frank not Sylvester, but he would just slip it in there not meantioning it again.

12:11 PM  
Blogger Don said...

Cooler,

I'm not sure your assessment of Jim Gilmore is quite accurate considering he is coming to Iowa soon, especially to speak at the Lincoln Day Dinner...

12:57 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

He's speakng at the Lincoln Day Dinner!?!?!?!

Line Change!!!!!!!!!!

1:06 PM  
Blogger Yoda said...

I think Frank is funny...

1:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

9:40 is Terry Nelson.

2:03 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wonder if we can fit Yoda's lightsaber up his ass?

2:06 PM  
Blogger Don said...

http://cycloneconservatives.blogspot.com/2007/03/gop-top-guns-skipping-lincoln-day.html

This will answer your question about who is currently set to speak at the Lincoln Day Dinner...

2:20 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good scoop Don! You must be on the RPI email list...

2:44 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Whoever 9:40 is...they gave more insight into this blog and Iowa politics in one comment than Burton Rider and Yoda have provided for us since last spring.

2:46 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Move John Cox up. He has much much grassroots support.

3:41 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Again, 9:40 is the post of the day.

3:53 PM  
Blogger Peter said...

Anybody see the great casting news for Indy 4?

5:24 PM  
Blogger Peter said...

Oh, 9:40 CAN'T be Terry Nelson.

5:25 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Peter...



You're just really weird...















and a little creepy.

6:05 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Peter...



You're just really weird...















and a little creepy.

6:06 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

6:06:

Indeed he is. I love how Huckabee looks so natural in his picture and peter is trying so ridiculously hard to look "dignified." Most awkward photo I 've ever seen.

6:38 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I wish I knew who posted the Frank Stallone shit, because I'd hit him in the face with my keyboard.

8:03 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

wow john cox has a supporter--oh wait it's john cox talking about himself. What a arrogant jerk.

12:31 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

6:38 and 6:06, great job from by you so-called professionals! Let's make fun of a volunteer because he's obviously in this for the money like you guy(s)!

9:15 AM  
Anonymous Frank Stallone said...

8:03 pm,

I would like to thank you for your support of the Frank Stallone campaign. Frank Stallone is happy you would sign on so early.

Frank Stallone will be holding a press conference today in Des Moines to announce yet another major endorsement. (none of this is true of course).

It appears as if Mitt Romney's wife will be endorsing Frank Stallone's candidacy. Several factors go into her decision:
1) Frank's classic Ronald Reagan Republicanism

2) his killer dance moves

3) his beautiful singing voice and hugely successful recording career

4) the fact that Mitt keeps trying to intrude on Frank Stallone's massive fundraisers (once setting a car on fire in the parking lot and firing a gun into the air).

5) Frank Stalone's oratory skills and charisma

6) she likes a champion

7) Frank Stallone is not a big Osmond fan

8) His tough stance on terror and immigration

Due to the Mormon heritage and Mitt's deep, deep, deep devotion to it, he sleeps in a separate bed and room from his wives. That's right, wives. She is unsure just how many he has.

Frank Stallone raised another $850,000 from Iowa donors last night while in Iowa City.

10:47 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Frank -
You forget
Mitt's wife would also support you because she believes women are equal to men. so yes while married to Mitt she also believes in poligamy and you could be a potential suitor.

War: A stallone in the White House

10:59 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

10:59,

you are the man!

WAR: Frank Stallone!

11:16 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

No love for Ron Paul? Sure he's not going to win, but neither will Tancredo, Hunter, Gilmore, or Hagel. And Paul has a) held elected office, and b) has a consistent message with a dedicated, though relatively small, constituency. Better than you can say for most of the people in the line up.

7:55 PM  

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  • The Cooler Line

    Mike Huckabee 10-9
    Mitt Romney 3-1
    Fred Thompson 9-1
    John McCain 9-1
    Rudy Giuliani 12-1
    Ron Paul 12-1
    Duncan Hunter 98-1
    The Cooler line is an exclusive creation of Caucus Cooler and will be updated as the political environment changes.
    It is an unscientific assessment of the Iowa Caucus (not the Presidential race as a whole) from an insiders view at the given time. The line IS NOW mathematically accurate but is NOT intended for gambling purposes. Information may only be reproduced with credit to the Caucus Cooler.