Line Change!

Without further ado..

1. (tie) Governor Mitt Romney- 5-2

The Kochel/Collins organizational juggernaut is still in place. No expense will be too lavish over the next 27 days. You better believe they will have caucus captains at more precincts than any other campaign, by a long shot. That said, this campaign is far from a coronation. Haunted by Mitt-flops and an unexpected coalescing of evangelicals behind Awshucksabee, Romney faces the very real potential of a loss in Iowa.

1. (tie) Governor Mike Huckabee- 5-2

WTF? The Cooler has been known to brag when we were the first to catch onto a trend... In this case, we were far from that. We doubted Awshucksabee this entire campaign but now there is no questioning his popularity. If you took a poll of Iowa's"Gang of 50" (and we did a small sampling yesterday just to make sure), you find as many people that think Huckmentum will carry the day, as you do people who think Romney's organization is too big to overcome. The things in Huckabee's favor?

1. Any pollster will tell you: The most encouraging thing for Huck in these last few polls has been his depth of support. 60% said they were definitely with Huckabee in one poll. Romney hovered in the low 30's.


2. The types of people Huckabee is drawing, are those that always go to the caucus, making his turnout operation a little less important. A large percentage of the caucus population are the habitual voters. Many are older people who have been caucusing for as long as they can remember... Huckabee is not trying to do what Obama is doing. Huckabee's bringing in OLD voters. This is important.


3. To buttress point #2, many of these voters are part of the evangelical organization. These folks know how to caucus, they've been doing it since 1988 with Pat Robertson. And while this coalition was fragmented just 6 weeks ago, that no longer seems to be the case. They've found their man in Awshucksabee. And now they believe he can win.

3. Mayor Rudolph Giuliani- 6-1

The Cooler gives a standing ovation to Mike DuHaime, Tony Carbonetti, KC Jones, our old friend Maria Comella, and the rest of team Rudy. We were confused, befuddled, bewildered by the Giuliani campaigns Iowa strategy when we last blogged. But it has all come into place. Unbelievably low expectations for a national frontrunner (We have no idea how they are getting away with this), A quiet, but strong, in-state organization led by very competent folks, a perfect storm of Awshucksabee surging to weaken Mitt and Thompson collapsing opening the door for Rudy to snatch the 3rd ticket out of Iowa. It seems to be working. Can Rudy win this caucuses? Almost definitely not. But given his ENORMOUS challenges in this state, he's looking about as good as could be expected.

4. Senator Fred Thompson- 15-1

We could write a long diatribe about why Fred imploded in Iowa---and we probably will. But this morning we won't waste your time when Fred's campaign could accurately and completely be described in one letter.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

5. Senator John McCain- 17-1

Given how ugly things were for the Straight Talk Express this summer, the position he's in now is rather remarkable. A 4th place finish is a very real possibility. If somehow the Iowa organizational veterans running the show over there can squeeze out 3rd, and Huckabee takes 1st, he goes to New Hampshire as the favorite. Who woulda thunk it? A legitimate path to nomination success.

That said, old wounds over immigration, and a surprisingly healthy Giuliani organization will likely prevent that. But he's in the game.

6. Ron Paul- 70-1

Ron Paul fever is sweeping the nation!!! If you don't believe us, just read the comments sections on any blog in the country. Will it manifest itself in Iowa???

Nah.

7. Tom Tancredo- 75-1

Those commercials are...uh......provocative? (ahem...racist...ahem)

8. Duncan Hunter- 99-1

Why is he still on debate stages?

The Cooler line will be updated every week between now and caucus day.