Cooler Line Explained
With the chatter being rather light around the Cooler for the past two days we thought we’d give you chance to comment on the “Cooler Line” and our reasoning for each placement. For those not familiar with odds and wagering, the line works like this. THE FOLLOWING EXPLANATION WAS COMPLETELY WRONG. SEE WE ARE STUPID : At 2-1 odds, Mitt Romney has a 25% chance of winning the caucus. (Example: If two people were running with an equal chance, they would both be 1-1 and thus have a 50% chance). Our math at the Cooler isn’t that great but we think the line adds up to somewhere in the low 90’s, leaving “None of the Above” with about a 10% chance to win the Caucus. Get it?
On to the top 3
1. Mitt Romney (2-1): Mitt clearly has the best organization in Iowa at this early stage. He has an advisory committee of 50 members, field staff, and higher level consultants with Iowa experience. He also has the conservative credentials needed to win in this state and has bought the most chits from county parties and state legislators/candidates. You also have to believe that he’ll be capable to bus a large number of LDS folks in for the straw poll and those won’t be usual straw poll attendees. Romney has shown he has the capability to raise the money needed as well (he’s raised a bushel of it already). He has the I was pro-life before I was pro-choice before I was pro-life again working against him, as well as the fact that he’ll spend a year explaining his religion. He is definitely not the favorite to win the nomination at this point- but we think he’s in the best shape to win the caucus. The #1 thing going for him- everyone else on the line has problems.
2. John McCain (5-2)- McCain is widely regarded as the favorite to win the nomination. He’s lining up Bush Pioneers left and right, he’s already brought on McKinnon and Nelson and there are sure to be more where that came from. He’s not viewed that favorably amongst the SoCo’s but the fact is; he is pro-life and anti-gay marriage, which is more than most of the contenders can say. He also is putting together an Iowa organization (a little slower than Romney) and spending money earning chits. We hear the next disbursements report for Straight Talk America will have a lot of Iowa zip codes on it. You have to believe that Larson and Nelson will bring a lot of Iowa establishment folks with them, the question is which ones. There is a vocal anti-McCain minority out there, but once you separate the forest from the trees it always tends to be the same folks trashing him. There are two things keeping McCain from the top spot: He skipped Iowa last time and the fact that he was at one point anti-ethanol.
3. George Pataki (7-2)- This is the placement we’ve got the most criticism for, but the fact is that August of 2006 Pataki is in the 3rd best position to win. That might not be the case in January of 08 but we’ll judge that then. Pataki is so high mostly because of his team. Loras Schulte and Ed Failor Jr. and Iowans for Tax Relief know what they are doing. Just ask Reps. Wilderdyke, Hutter and Senator Tinsman. They have a huge membership, a great list and a terrific turnout machine. Pataki has working against him the fact that he’s pro-choice and his 29% approval rating in New York- but he’s a big state Governor and he has the resources to get the job done. At this stage, Pataki looks like the sleeper.
Back with the rest of the list later.
On to the top 3
1. Mitt Romney (2-1): Mitt clearly has the best organization in Iowa at this early stage. He has an advisory committee of 50 members, field staff, and higher level consultants with Iowa experience. He also has the conservative credentials needed to win in this state and has bought the most chits from county parties and state legislators/candidates. You also have to believe that he’ll be capable to bus a large number of LDS folks in for the straw poll and those won’t be usual straw poll attendees. Romney has shown he has the capability to raise the money needed as well (he’s raised a bushel of it already). He has the I was pro-life before I was pro-choice before I was pro-life again working against him, as well as the fact that he’ll spend a year explaining his religion. He is definitely not the favorite to win the nomination at this point- but we think he’s in the best shape to win the caucus. The #1 thing going for him- everyone else on the line has problems.
2. John McCain (5-2)- McCain is widely regarded as the favorite to win the nomination. He’s lining up Bush Pioneers left and right, he’s already brought on McKinnon and Nelson and there are sure to be more where that came from. He’s not viewed that favorably amongst the SoCo’s but the fact is; he is pro-life and anti-gay marriage, which is more than most of the contenders can say. He also is putting together an Iowa organization (a little slower than Romney) and spending money earning chits. We hear the next disbursements report for Straight Talk America will have a lot of Iowa zip codes on it. You have to believe that Larson and Nelson will bring a lot of Iowa establishment folks with them, the question is which ones. There is a vocal anti-McCain minority out there, but once you separate the forest from the trees it always tends to be the same folks trashing him. There are two things keeping McCain from the top spot: He skipped Iowa last time and the fact that he was at one point anti-ethanol.
3. George Pataki (7-2)- This is the placement we’ve got the most criticism for, but the fact is that August of 2006 Pataki is in the 3rd best position to win. That might not be the case in January of 08 but we’ll judge that then. Pataki is so high mostly because of his team. Loras Schulte and Ed Failor Jr. and Iowans for Tax Relief know what they are doing. Just ask Reps. Wilderdyke, Hutter and Senator Tinsman. They have a huge membership, a great list and a terrific turnout machine. Pataki has working against him the fact that he’s pro-choice and his 29% approval rating in New York- but he’s a big state Governor and he has the resources to get the job done. At this stage, Pataki looks like the sleeper.
Back with the rest of the list later.
posted by Caucus Cooler at 8/03/2006
18 Comments:
You guys are a bunch of Romney loving hacks. Everybody knows Romney people are behind this. Nobody else would be stupid enough to put him first.
That's really funny anon 1107 because I was just about to say that this blog must be Bobby Kauffman or Eric Helland or one of Jrs interns because only people knee deep in Pataki kool-aid would think he's sniffing Mitt, McCain, Rudy or even Newt at this point. Its pretty clear to me who these guys are backing.
I'm not one of those guys and I am backing Pataki.
The more people that tell us we're idiots, the better job we're doing. It's our list and we're sticking to it...until we change it.
Pataki isn't pro-life. The State of New York is Pro-life. Geez.
I mean - state of NY is pro-death. Sorry about that. Freudian hopefullness I guess.
Pataki isn't pro-abortion, he is against the government telling us what to do with our bodies.
Don't know how that one is going to play with the caucus goers in Western Iowa 4:40
Anon 11:07:
You're lucky Burton Rider didn't see that one!
If the westerners take the time to actually sit down with the Pataki team, it is my opinion that they will see him as someone they want as the leader of our Country.
Where is Burton these days? We miss him in the blogosphere
WAR Burton Rider
I'm not a Romney fan, but I agree he's the front-runner at this time. However, I agree with most of the posts that Pataki is quite overrated, and McCain is ridiculously overrated. If this line is to win the caucus, not the nomination, you have to lower those two quite a bit. Your average Iowa caucus-goer cares about core conservative issues. That bumps Pataki down. They also have good memories, which bumps McCain down. Not to mention his moderate wheeling-and-dealings with the Dems.
I initially thought Romney's religion would hurt him, but he's doing a nice job explaining it. Fifth district voters will probably be against his Momonism, but I think the other four districts will forget about it.
And 4:40, he should be against the government telling people they can kill other people. It has nothing to do with what they do with THEIR bodies.
9:07 - nothing to do with their bodies? that is one of the most stupid things I have read on this blog.
Anon 907: I think you're going to be suprised with the organizations McCain and Pataki put together here, and that is crucial in the Caucus. Based on your opinions, there are only two people that could leapfrog them- Allen and Huckabee.
Allen very well might, but Huck's not going to have the $$$ you need. If those candidates make big moves, we'll adjust accordingly. But as it stands RIGHT NOW, we believe McCain and Pataki are in the best shape.
Burton here, and thanks for the WARs.
I hate handicapping this stuff, but I'm getting tired of all the high expectations. Anybody who knows anything about presidential politics knows you don't go calling yourself the frontrunner, especially if you've got a candidate who can already raise money.
Any Romney person running this blog would be slapped silly by me if I ever uncovered them.
Sorry not many posts lately, I'm focused on winning the House in 2006. And building cool malls in California.
Keep up the good work Cooler staff, but do me a favor and rank Mitt a close second.
WAR Mav, Skanks (where are you?), Cowbell, SmartChick, Yoda, Ann Coulter, jbauer, and all the original Krusty alum. Also, WAR a massive T-giving dump of snow and a record breaking year of powder-days in Vail. WAR Burton Supermodels, and WAR pounding freshies til your ass drags in 18" of powder.
BR
Good to have our two favorite Coolerites weighing in.
BR- If you stop doing such a good job, we'll move Mitt down the Cooler Line! And hopefully that snow that hits vail will dump on Tahoe as well. The Cooler staff likes hitting the bumps hard, but on two sticks.
Maverick- Some further research has made the cooler realize that we are idiots and the line will be adjusted accordingly. See post later today.
I find the fact that Mitt will have so many more people turn out for him based on his religion scary.
Cool blog, interesting information... Keep it UP »
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