Line Change!
A couple tidbits bring about another change in the line.
With news of a complete Pataki implosion in Iowa, he continues his George Allenesque free-fall down the line.
Pataki goes from 18-1 to 25-1- just behind Dr. Bill Frist.
The Pataki free-fall is good news for Mrrs. Giuliani and McCain. A big part of the Pataki collapse has been the shadow of Rudy that looms larger and larger as each week passes. The thought that Rudy wouldn't enter this race has almost completely faded.
McCain gets a boost based on rumors that most of the Pataki organization is heading his way, led by the inimitable Ed Failor Junior.
So Rudy moves up a half-step from 15-2 to 7-1 and McCain a half-step from 5-1 to 9-2.
Tommy Thompson also makes his inaugural appearance on the line. His focus on renewable fuels is sure to play well in Iowa, as well as his homestate's proximity to Hawkeye County. Krusty even thinks Steve Grubbs will jump on board.
Thus Tommy comes in ahead of Duncan and Jim at 75-1.
For math purposes the "field" bet and Huckabee slip a bit and fall to 13-1 and 14-1 respectively.
Comment away.
posted by Caucus Cooler at 11/28/2006
10 Comments:
Huckabee that high on your list is an embarrassment, and casts doubt on the entire project.
He has absolutely no chance in Iowa or anywhere else. The more people hear about him, the worse he will poll.
You gotta move Senator Hagel up on the listings. He's from a neighboring state with much of Omaha's media reaching into Iowa. If he tosses his hat in the ring he'll hit the ground running in Iowa. He should at least be ahead of Duncan Hunter.
Be on the lookout for a David Ignatius piece about Hagel in '08 tomorrow in the Washington Post.
We'll check it out Charles. Our reasoning for Hagel is that we don't know what his core constituency is. Anti-Iraq Caucus goers? That's not going to get you very far. At least Hunter fills a void in that he is to the right of the Big 3 in this race.
That's our logic.
As for Huckabee being as high as he is.. Make the argument for Frist or Thompson or Gingrich being ahead of him and we'll listen anon. But as for now, he seems to be the best positioned out of the rest of the field.
If Newt makes serious moves or Brownback, we might reconsider.
Huckabee is the only Christian conservative with a chance, 9:09. Brownback is the other option, and he's a senator. We all know how well they do.
So if a voter is looking for someone who is anti-abortion, and has been all his life; anti-gay marriage; pro-ethanol; and pro-second ammendment, Huckabee is the only option. In fact, let's look at the people below him:
Frist: supports embryonic stem cell research. That will severly hurt him in Iowa.
Pataki: Oh brother. Here we go: pro-gun control. Pro-gay marriage. Pro-abortion. Hello?? RINO anyone???
Those above him???
Romney: NE politician who was against abortion, then for it, now against it again. Let's ask another NE politician (Kerry) how that worked out for him.
McCain: Anti-ethanol. Or wait, is he for it when oil is over $40/barrel. But when it was $60/barrel he issued a press release against ethanol... hmmmmmm.
Giuliani: SEE PATAKI
I would vote for any of these people over a democrat. But when core Christian conservatives look for someone to vote for, it's going to be Huckabee. That's why he should be as high as he is.
Where are all the Cox nuts screaming about their guy? Did they finally realize that Cox is a Steve Forbes wanna be less charisma and good looks?
BREAKING NEWS - Sen. Frist has dropped out of the race for president.
Hagel has no shot whatsoever unless he wishes to join the Democrat bunch of 08ers. Hagel has Viet Nam disease. It's a severe hangover caused by seeing current events through the prism of the 70's.
That was 30 years ago! Iraq is not like Viet Nam, Bush is Not like Nixon, the NSA wiretapping is NOT Johnson and Nixon spying on their political enemies.
Wake Up Hagel - it's almost 2007.
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Senator Hagel is a fiscal and social conservative and would not fit at all with the Democrats. He is actually more conservative than much of the current Republican field (i.e. McCain, Romney, and Giuliani). If he can introduce himself to the people they'll see that. Chuck Hagel is an ethanol supporter, pro-life (and always has been), opposed to gay marriage, opposed to stem cell research, favors entitlement reform and balancing the budget and supported the President's tax cuts.
As for Iraq, he is not in line with where some of the Republican base is on Iraq, but he has been right for years about it and he is where a majority of the American people are on Iraq (i.e. the voters in the general election).
It's all going to be about national security and hagel doesn't think there's a problem. He has Viet Nam disease.
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