Line Change!
This will be the Cooler's last post before the Christmas holiday- barring some shocking breaking news. Thank you so much for making us part of your day over the past 5 months. We look forward to an exciting caucus campaign here at the Cooler. On to the line changes.
Yesterday KCCI and Research 2000 came out with a poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers. This is the first such poll of the Republican contenders in quite some time. It showed McCain at 27%, Rudy at 26%, Romney at 9% and Newt at 7%.
Given Senator McCain's lead in the poll and the strides their camp has made organizationally, at this stage it makes sense to move him into a tie with Romney. Also, we head into the New Year with only McCain and Romney with real Iowa organizations. They are clearly the class of the field at this point. Due to the separation they've created, we are moving Senator McCain from 4-1 to 3-1 and Governor Romney from 7-2 to 3-1. Merry Christmas guys.
Rudy also did well in the KCCI poll, but that doesn't affect his standing because he is artificially high on the Cooler Line based on his poll numbers. If they come through on their promise and show us an Iowa organization after the New Year, that will be much more telling. Rudy stays at 6-1.
Unrelated to the poll, we have some movement from Huckabee, Brownback, and Gilmore.
Mike Huckabee somehow managed to get out of 2006 WITHOUT DOING A SINGLE THING to advance his candidacy in Iowa. His complete disappearing act has been astonishing.
In the meantime two other candidates with the same constituency have been active. Governor Gilmore has been seen campaigning in Iowa 3 times in the past 2 months. He has a cadre of old-line Iowa conservatives that seem to be coalescing around his candidacy and he has the beginnings of a staff.
Senator Brownback has lined up two influential Des Moines activists in Chuck Hurley and Kevin McLaughlin, he has taken clear strides towards a run, and he's courting the right people. (pun intended).
So with that, the Cooler is moving Mike Huckabee from 14-1 to 23-1, Sam Brownback from 24-1 to 15-1, and Jim Gilmore from 99-1 to 39-1 (you can stop emailing us now Gilmore staffers, we're believers).
That's all for now. We hope you and your families have a merry, blessed, and safe Christmas Coolerites. We'll see you next week.
posted by Caucus Cooler at 12/23/2006
55 Comments:
Interesting. I wonder if Rudy is going to by pass Iowa or not? The problem with Bypassing Iowa and this holds true to Hillary right now as while who is at about 10% and her supporters will have to break off into other camps (Which I would think helped Edwards just because they won't want to see Ombama win) on election day in may caucus sites.
Opps, did not mean to post that early...
What I mean is if you bypass Iowa you are going to have to play catch up in the general here if they win the Nomation.
Brownback seems to be quickly emerging as the social conservative candidate.
If he can put together the Bauer/Keyes vote in a field with McCain/Giuliani/Romney rather than Bush/Forbes/Quayle he could be a force in the Iowa Caucus.
Brownback is flawed on immigration, as is Huckabee. This is an issue that can sink a candidate.
What's wrong with Huckabee?
Where the hell has he been? That's what's wrong with him.
Huckabee is just waiting till his term ends unlike another candidate in the race. Anyway, the new poll seems to have more than its fair share of unlikely candidates.
John McCain 27%
Rudy Giuliani 26%
Mitt Romney 9%
NEWT GINGRICH? 7%
CONDI RICE? 4%
GEORGE PATAKI? 1%
JEB BUSH? 1%
GEORGE ALLEN? 1%
Sam Brownback 1%
RICK SANTORUM? 1%
Duncan Hunter 0%
Undecided 22%
Why have we seen no movement with regard to Senator Hagel on he line? He's a more attractive candidate for the Republicans now given what is going on in Iraq (as more and more Republicans grow uneasy with the current policy). He's also a solid fiscal and social conservative from a neighboring state.
Cooler,
You have now demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt that you are dismally un-connected from Iowa insiders. Huckabee and Dick Dresner know exactly what they are doing, and you apparently are hearing none of it.
More than a casual observer--you don't have a clue!! Huckabee has a few supporters but nothing big! All he has right now is woolson and wolson is doing nothing!!! While everyone who wants to run for president and win is criss-crossing the state Where is huckabee?? We have not seen him! While all the credible people are being snatched up by other candidates where is Huckabee?? NO where. Huckabee has no organization, No money and is not spending time in Iowa!
John Cox will easily beat Huckabee and he is not credible!
Dick Dresner? Seriously. This is the same Dick Dresner that robbed Tom Tauke's campaign of over a hundred thousand dollars in unaired tv ads?
Everyone can be offended all they want.
Huckabee and Hagel supporters can whine all they want. Look at Jim Gilmore, we mercilessly mocked him for weeks- but he identified a constituency, put together an organization, visited the state and all of the sudden he's viable.
Once Huckabee or Hagel start to do that, they are set.
And our memory is not very youthful but we do think that Dick Dresner was the media consultant that screwed Tauke but we might be wrong on that.
Burton or Maverick do either of you remember?
Don't you realize that Huckabee is just waiting until his term ends? Once it does and he gets on the trail his message will start to resonate with voters and he'll start going places.
Yep, Cooler, Dresner was the one. Not something to put on your Iowa caucus resume.
Sorry Huckabee fans, he is going to get shut out. There might have been room for a moderate like Huckabee if Romney, Giuliani, McCain, and Pataki weren't running; but they are.
Huckabee is a moderate and his natural base has about five candidates more attractive than Huck they will go to irst.
If he tries running as a conservative he will be eviscerated by the Club For Growth and a dozen other national conservative groups. The backlash against him would make Romney's problems seem like a walk in the park.
Do yourselves a favor and just keep on biding...
Huckabee is NOT a moderate, anon. Where you got that information, I don't know, but I can assure you that Huckabee is much more conservative than the R.I.N.O frat club of Pataki (who is out), Romney, and Rudy.
"If he tries running as a conservative he will be eviscerated by the Club For Growth and a dozen other national conservative groups. The backlash against him would make Romney's problems seem like a walk in the park."
What kind of "backlash" are you thinking of, anon? Romney's the one who is having and will continue to have problems with backlash, not Huckabee.
People are not stupid. Huckabee's a real principled conservative who would make a fine President if he is elected
Peter, Huckabee is "principled" in the sense that he dares to be non-conservative (i.e. the textbook media description of "principled.")
He's wrong on giving in-state tuition to illegals; he's wrong on his position of pardoning hardened criminals being the "Christian" thing to do, he's wrong on raising taxes and he's wrong when he attacks everyone who opposes his agenda as a bigot.
But he's right about losing weight. Though that's not enough to hang a campaign on.
Anon 11:57 writes: "John Cox will easily beat Huckabee and he is not credible!"
Agreed that Cox will beat the absent Huckabee, but Cox "not credible?" Think again.
Huckabee hasn't been in Iowa but Cox has been in the state 11 times in recent months on multiple-day campaign swings, has had all 99 counties covered with volunteer coordinators for MONTHS, has spoken to seven county conventions and has been to five county fundraisers in eastern Iowa.
Yet, the Mainstream Media and snarky blogs (present company included) continue to blather on about "frontrunner" celebrity politicians, some of whom (Pataki, for one) have little chance of making it in the Caucus and others, if they do happen to do well in IA, have LITTLE chance of winning the South or West, making Iowa a poor barometer indeed.
Wake up, people - those of you not on the payroll of McCain and Romney, that is - YOU HAVE A CHOICE.
And BTW, "None of the above" is winning in many polls - and is #3 in the poll cited above - so I wouldn't get too snarky, McCain and Romney fans.
Stephen A.-
While all you have on your side is overreaching rhetoric, we "snarky" bloggers have some other things like history and facts.
1. Beginning in 1968, The GOP has nominated the frontrunner everytime.
2. In this day and age it takes vast resources to win a nomination, McCain and Romney seem to be the only candidates poised to raise that money. Possibly Rudy.
(And Romney has more personal wealth than Cox so don't give that counter argument).
3. Someone who has not been part of the political conversation prior to running for President has NEVER achieved even moderate success in the nominating process.
And on and on and on.
Romney = Perot
Cooler, since you are stuck on statistics, riddle me this: how many times has a Senator been elected president?
Shouldn't Romney and Huckabee be frontrunners since three of the last four presidents were GOVERNORS?
One of the most over cited statistics in Presidential politics is this "Governors" statistic.
First, any armchair quarterback that doesn't even pay attention to politics can come up with this argument.
2nd, 9/11 makes national security experience more critical now than in any of the recent elections.
Also to the Cox supporters, in the last 50 years 2 more Senators have been elected than selfimportant businessmen.
The Goveror statistic has some value ifyou you are from a state like NY, TX or CA only because of the money you can raise in such states. It then become a regional game. We are in a very very unusual election situation. First, we have in no way an incumbant running. Second we have two very polarized partyies and polarized faction between the two. and Third Niether party has a clear message there is no one defining issue that everyone can say we are going to do that and here is how we are going to do that.
As For the John Cox People, I am sorry many of you are friends to the party but John won't make it in a top three spot here in iowa.
McCain, I have now clue how you got 27% in that last poll I would have you around 10-15%. Mccain is going to have tough time becuase he really has been a thorn in the side of republicans for the last six years.
Romney has seen an amazing ride. His support is a mile wide and skin deep but if they drive that home i would see them in s top 1 or 2 spot. BR you have an amazing team,Gentry, yourself, St. Clair, Nicole, and Morano. Kudos!
Gilmore and Brownback really have a lot going on two. I am sorry huckabee fans but you really should be on board with one of these two guys. Huckabe can't deliver. Both Brownback or Gilmore have the ability to raise money and come from areas that our base is in danger and they have long track records of winning with impecable conservative credentials. Both are in the process of getting great Iowa organizations.
To all of you and your organizations have happy new year.
January 2, everything changes.
This was on Real Clear Politics. Can the Iowa Romney team overcome these poor poll results? It suggests Romney is a weak candidate. How will they strengthen him? What matters most locally? Team members or the Candidate?
"Summarizing these results: Obama, Edwards and Vilsack beat every Republican. Hillary loses to every Republican but Romney. Romney loses to every Democrat. McCain runs slightly better than Giuliani matching up against most of the Dem field."
Yup. John Cox can't win because he's an unlected outsider businessman.
Just like a Roman Catholic, a divorced man, a former actor, or even a black or a woman CAN'T win the presidency. I guess the media needs to stop covering Obama and Hillary, then, based simply on these odds.
In Ronald Reagan's America, anyone has a chance, and no one should be barred from earning an equal platform, being heard and being elected. No one. That's John's message of hope, not the political insiders' petty message of exclusion.
Given that Cox is in Iowa in force, with county chairs in each of the state's 99 counties, he has built that platform and has earned that chance. Has Hunter? Has Huckabee? That they are failed politicians currently or recently in office doesn't hold any water with the average voter, and actually works against both, and the others, too.
Give it a rest. There are actual conservatives jumping into the race who have held office making Cox even more laughable.
I know a few county clerks who actually won their races, I hereby demand that The Caucus Cooler stop caving into the evil MSM and put them at the top of their line! Do it now!!!
I am John Cox I read a book about reagan and now I should be president!!
Bob4prez, thanks for a clear demonstration of the snark I was talking about.
And I hope you don't mean by "actual conservatives" folks like Brownback, who supported the McCain-Kennedy-Bush's amnesty plan.
We're tired of posting on Cox.
http://caucuscooler.blogspot.com/2006/10/54-people-like-cox.html
We'll be the first to apologize to you if we are wrong Stephen, but you are in a dream world.
Just for a quick refresher though, the Roman Catholic was a Senator from a wealthy, blue-blood family and the screen-actor was also Governor of the biggest state in the union.
Keep that in mind.
Cox is a joke. Get over yourselves.
Cox's people are against free speech!!! See the above posts!
Let's all just take one week and bash Cox. Then maybe we can get to real discussion in stead of wasting our time with further cox posts.
Texas, California, Arkansas. Three of the last four Presidents were Governors of those states. Huckabee fits the criteria for President and so does Romney. If John Cox is such a joke, why is everyone afraid to talk about him?
What's so wrong about about a non-political outsider? I'd rather have one of those than an insider!
And by the way, who is GILMORE???
Looks like its the Caucus folks (see anon 10:42 above, and elsewhere) who are afraid of free speech and want to stifle it.
I'm mitt romney and I want to pretend I'm a conservative now that I've spent four years as a pro-abortion liberal.
McCain/Global Warming:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20061225-110519-1589r.htm
Gag me with a spoon. I honestly thought he was smarter than that!!
Highly regarded scientists have proven time and time again that our earth has normal warming and cooling cycles.
Perhaps the rest of you aren't old enough to remember when the lunatic fringe was wringing their hands about the coming ice age. I'm pretty long in the tooth and I remember it well.
Reasonable people are certainly going to question WHY McCain has bought into such a farce.
(disclaimer: I am not a staffer. I am a little old lady who hasn't chosen a candidate)
It's stupid stuff like this that helps me winnow down the field to a more manageable number.
Why is Romney such a phoney? Look at this, he opposed the Contract with America.
The Washington Post points out that Mitt Romney opposed the Contract With America. Why? Well, I got out my trusty Lexis and asked it that question. Here’s what I got. Full articles after the jump.
According to one article:
Mr. Romney, a venture capitalist who has never held elective office, criticized the Republican campaign agenda, the "Contract With America," as too partisan. He said he would have gone against the GOP leadership and supported the crime bill, and would oppose a capital gains tax cut.
According to another:
Romney stressed his support for universal health insurance and abortion rights, criticized the Republican "Contract With America" promoted by the party’s congressional leaders and, at Faneuil Hall, was more outspoken than Kennedy in arguing that the Boy Scouts should not exclude homosexual youths.
Hmmm. So his reasons were that he didn’t want to be partisan, opposed tax cuts and at the same time emphasized that he supported abortion and supported universal health insurance. Gary Marx is going to have to keep working on that conservative outreach.
The world was a different place 13 years ago.
Why don't we all get together for a big group hug before we bash the hell out of each other? Thank You =]
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
I'm Mike Huckabee and you can't join my fraternity, dumbass!!!
I'm Mike Huckabee but you all know me better as "Jared" from the Subway commericals. =D Peace!
I'm John McCain. Screw you Jared. You're the next target for my walker!@#$%
um guys, I'm Barack Obama and you all make me feel intimidated and sad. I'm going to cry under the covers and call the ACLU.
I'm Hillary Clinton and I know you all want to get with me
Cox sux.
Looks like the Contract for America is just another "mitt flop."
unless he's still opposed?
anon 10:44:
It's not that we're afraid to talk about him. The Cox posts are like having a dozen comments about "debt consolidation" on a blog, they have became incessant spam for a product 99% of people aren't going to buy.
We all know that you're trying to create some sort of Howard Dean-style blogwave for Cox, but you all need to figure that leaving 80 comments on every political blog in the country only annoys people.
In conclusion, you have all become nothing more than spammers and deserve to be treated no better.
Vote John Cox©
Just like Steve Forbes; only without the money, name, or platform.
John Cox doesn't have a name??????
Huckabee is good! Cox is good!
Hillary is bad! Romney is Bad!
Give it up. Cox isn't going to get more than 50 people (who are Iowans) to the straw poll.
Is Maury Taylor going to be Cox's running mate?
Hey, Bob4prez, sorry pal, but the paid hacks mentioning McCain, Pataki and Romney over and over again on blogs like these are spreading crap spam that no conservative voter wants to buy.
People are sick of the media-fed corrupt politicians and they want something new, refreshing and honest for change.
As for you're call to treat Cox supporters as no better than spammers, it's too bad you don't believe in freedom. You're on the wrong side of this one, and that's really pathetic. The Caucus will be a joke if it's not open to all. Your bullying tactics won't work.
Someone calm down the Cox supporters.... if we don't get them on board, it will split the party... WTF.
Winin08:
on the wrong side of the President, the Reagan legacy, etc.
They get points for being on the wrong side of the President. Bush is a disaster.
Let's see what Rudy the Transvestite had to say about the Reagan legacy:
--Village Voice Interview with Guiliani: He was asked: "What kind of Republican Is [Giuliani]? A Reagan Republican?" Giuliani pauses before answering: "I'm a Republican." Village Voice January 24, 1989
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