We decided to just go ahead an get this out of the way tonight.
This week's line change is good news for Mitt Romney and Sam Brownback and introduces Tom Tancredo.
Romney moves back into the top slot following a Roll Call article
showing that he had high popularity amongst GOP County Chairs. We at the Cooler have been saying all along that Romney appeared to be a narrow frontrunner in Iowa with his strong organization and grassroots efforts. The Des Moines Register Iowa poll
convinced us that McCain had enough of a base within the party to be a co-favorite. And James Dobson didn't help McCain this weekend by saying he woud not support his candidacy
. While we still feel he has a base in the party, Romney seems to have the advantage by a nose. Krusty agrees
. McCain moves back to 7-2 on the news.
Sam Brownback moves up another spot as he continues to solidify his role as the CCA
. He also got some good press as the only candidate currently in the race to take a stance against the troop surge. With the chance that a new candidate gets in being less and less likely and with Tancredo being part of the old "field", Brownback moves to 12-1
and the field bet drops to 20-1.
Lastly Tom Tancredo makes his first appearance on the "Cooler Line." If Tancredo does fully make the jump, he'll have a clear constiuency with the "King Wing" of the party on illegal immigration. With the crosstabs in a recent North Carolina poll showing that 19% of GOPers consider illegal immigration to be the most important issue
, that's enough folks to get Tancredo a 3rd Iowa if he takes it seriously enough. Tancredo jumps in at 55-1.
The Cooler Line
Mike Huckabee 10-9
Mitt Romney 3-1
Fred Thompson 9-1
John McCain 9-1
Rudy Giuliani 12-1
Ron Paul 12-1
Duncan Hunter 98-1
The Cooler line is an exclusive creation of Caucus Cooler and will be updated as the political environment changes.
It is an unscientific assessment of the Iowa Caucus (not the Presidential race as a whole) from an insiders view at the given time. The line IS NOW mathematically accurate but is NOT intended for gambling purposes. Information may only be reproduced with credit to the Caucus Cooler.