Line Change!
We decided to just go ahead an get this out of the way tonight.
This week's line change is good news for Mitt Romney and Sam Brownback and introduces Tom Tancredo.
Romney moves back into the top slot following a Roll Call article showing that he had high popularity amongst GOP County Chairs. We at the Cooler have been saying all along that Romney appeared to be a narrow frontrunner in Iowa with his strong organization and grassroots efforts. The Des Moines Register Iowa poll convinced us that McCain had enough of a base within the party to be a co-favorite. And James Dobson didn't help McCain this weekend by saying he woud not support his candidacy. While we still feel he has a base in the party, Romney seems to have the advantage by a nose. Krusty agrees. McCain moves back to 7-2 on the news.
Sam Brownback moves up another spot as he continues to solidify his role as the CCA. He also got some good press as the only candidate currently in the race to take a stance against the troop surge. With the chance that a new candidate gets in being less and less likely and with Tancredo being part of the old "field", Brownback moves to 12-1 and the field bet drops to 20-1.
Lastly Tom Tancredo makes his first appearance on the "Cooler Line." If Tancredo does fully make the jump, he'll have a clear constiuency with the "King Wing" of the party on illegal immigration. With the crosstabs in a recent North Carolina poll showing that 19% of GOPers consider illegal immigration to be the most important issue, that's enough folks to get Tancredo a 3rd Iowa if he takes it seriously enough. Tancredo jumps in at 55-1.
posted by Caucus Cooler at 1/14/2007
18 Comments:
Everybody is seeing it. Mitt's the guy to beat! My man Mitt!!!
Go Mitt Go! The mitt-mentum continues to build.
Your right CC! Mitt seems to be the most popular of all those GOP'ers seeking the nomination. If Mitt is winning the "talent" sweepstakes and has most of the county chairs supporting him, then he should easily win the Iowa Straw Poll.
Anything less than a win would be troubling and spell the beginning of the end of his candidacy!
Keep raising those expectations Cooler! You're doing a great job!
I think Mitt needs 102% in the straw poll to really win it... All McCain has to do is show up and make it through the day without drooling on himself. (Which may not be easy.)
Max and FHM are way overboard on analyzing what we are saying. At this stage Mitt seems to be the favorite in Iowa by a hair. Most anybody you talk to around here would agree with that assessment. Including David Yepsen and Krusty.
We don't think a loss in the straw poll would be "an end to his candidacy" or anything like that. That is a huge stretch.
You're right. I am overboard. What do you expect? I'm a feces hurling monkey!
There's a reason My Man Mitt is at the top of the line. B/c he as the credentials to make a great President. And I've got 6.5 million other reasons too!
how can you have Pataki ahead of Tancredo? I think you gotta flip em.
No CC, it is you guys who are overanalyzing the situation. Hyperbole used by myself is to make a point. The straw poll is completely meaningless and not representative of popular support. The only thing it means is that a bunch of zealots and paid political hacks had nothing better to do in August but show up to Hilton. Most of them will be from out of state and most of them won't be representative of the average Republican. Whoever wins or loses the straw poll shouldn't worry about it in the least, but they will and so will you guys. Now if Mitt truly has the most popular support and the best "talent" then shouldn't he be expected to win the damn thing? If not, why not?
Mitt winning the nomination would be the end of the Republican party holding the executive branch. He is the Republicans John Kerry, he has flip flopped on so many issues he will be spending most of the campaign addressing them rather than promoting policy.
Hmmm, does Mitt windsurf?
You mean Mittsurf? Changing directions at will?
http://www.boston.com/news/local/articles/2007/01/14/romney_retreats_on_gun_control/
Get on the stick Cooler my broth'ah!
www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070116/NEWS/70116011/1001
Even though I admire some of his positions, I don't think Tancredo will catch on because he won't be able to get support from those who may not agree with him in something.
Just for starters, can you back up your statment that Mitt has flipped with regards to 2nd amendment rights or taxes?
Way to focus on the postitive.
Mitt Romeny 2008: He hasn't flipped on guns or taxes. (Just don't ask about anything else)
Where's congressman Ron Paul?
I heard he was running, too. When's he coming to Iowa?
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