Thursday, August 03, 2006

Cooler Line Explained Part Deux

4. Rudy Giuliani (4-1)- Rudy has the name ID, the ability to raise money, the star power, and the national security credentials. He also supports gay marriage and abortion, has been seen dressed in drag, and has to have some skeletons in his closet (see: Bernard Kerik and an ex-wife that hates him). We're not sure what to think of Rudy. He is the X factor. Until he has Iowa staff and clear intentions that he's running he's going to stay in the middle of the line.

5. George Allen (6-1) You can see our profile of George Allen here. He's got the conservative credentials and a great team of consultants. He's also in the middle of a Senate race, is very similar to a not-so-popular resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave and has a little abortion problem. Allen could pass Rudy and Pataki if he makes the right moves in November. We'll have to wait and see.

6. Mike Huckabee (8-1) Huckabee has the advantage of being Governor, a strong stake with the SoCo's and a good story to tell. He also will have fundraising problems and is weak on tax/spend. He's putting together an Iowa organization already which puts him miles ahead of Brownback in the SoCo camp. He has the potential to move up or down the line depending on what happens with the others.

7. Bill Frist (12-1) You heard it here first that Brian Kennedy was leading Team Frist. He has the fundraising capability and a lot of chits nation-wide. He's slowly building his rep in Iowa. As a Senate Majority leader, his performance has been widely disparaged. It's going to be a tough go for Frist but he's in the game.

The rest of the folks on the board are also-rans at this point. None have organizations in Iowa, none have been that active on the national fundraising scene. If Newt, Sam, or Chuck make an active move in the next few months, we'll reevaluate.

That's it. That's the list. Call us brilliant, Call us idiots, but that's how we see it in August of '06. Plenty of time for movement and we'll be the first to let you know who's gaining momentum and who's losing steam.

  • Caucus Coolerisms
  • The Cooler Line

    Mike Huckabee 10-9
    Mitt Romney 3-1
    Fred Thompson 9-1
    John McCain 9-1
    Rudy Giuliani 12-1
    Ron Paul 12-1
    Duncan Hunter 98-1
    The Cooler line is an exclusive creation of Caucus Cooler and will be updated as the political environment changes.
    It is an unscientific assessment of the Iowa Caucus (not the Presidential race as a whole) from an insiders view at the given time. The line IS NOW mathematically accurate but is NOT intended for gambling purposes. Information may only be reproduced with credit to the Caucus Cooler.