Friday, November 10, 2006

Line Change!

The 2008 campaign is officially upon us and the Cooler Staff thinks it's time for a line change.

Remember, while the line is mathematically accurate it is not intended for gambling purposes. In addition, the line only reflects the candidates prospects for winning the Iowa Caucus at a given time- NOT the Primary as a whole.

If you want to know who's going to win the whole thing, ask the Hotline or the Gang of 500.

Onto the line changes.

  • Our top two contenders hold their spots as the favorites. Romney with a slight edge over McCain, thanks mostly to McCains snubbing of Iowa in 2000 and Romney's headstart from an organizational standpoint.

    Pataki moves up a notch from 7-1 to 13-2. They had a very good grassroots operation going on in Polk County that we're sure helped them with the grassroots. Kudos to Team Pataki.

    Giuliani also creeps up a notch as rumors of his announcement get louder in Iowa. His staff talked with a number of Iowa operatives during Rudy's whirlwind Nussle tour. Rudy goes from 8-1 to 15-2.

    The field bet drops a bit as the likely contenders emerge. 12-1 to 15-1.

Here come the big changes:

  • George Allen continues his nosedive down the line, after conceding his Senate seat to Jim Webb yesterday (very graciously), Allen drops from 25-1 to 250-1. Exepct him to leave the line all together relatively soon.

    Duncan Hunter and Jim Gilmore also make their debuts on the line. Gilmore has made two trips two Iowa and has Polk County activist Dale Blair on board, and he has been said to be actively recruiting some of the traditional conserverative grassroots in the state.

    Duncan Hunter is a solid conservative and he's an avowed hawk. He is the chairman of the House armed services committee so he has credibility on foreign affairs. He also has been known as a poor fundraiser, not a good quality in a Presidential candidate. Someone close to Hunter in Iowa told us that it would be like the inverse of the Kucinich campaign.

    While Hunter is definately in the race, everything we hear out of Gilmore Iowa people is that he probably is too. So for now, we're bringing them both in the line at the same place. Gilmore 99-1. Hunter 100-1.

    That's all for now.


Blogger Charlie said...

Following the results of the midterm election, I think that Senator Hagel needs to go up in the rankings. While he has visited Iowa only once or twice in the last year, he is from a neighboring state, is a social and fiscal conservative, and the 2006 election results may give him a real boost.

10:45 AM  

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  • The Cooler Line

    Mike Huckabee 10-9
    Mitt Romney 3-1
    Fred Thompson 9-1
    John McCain 9-1
    Rudy Giuliani 12-1
    Ron Paul 12-1
    Duncan Hunter 98-1
    The Cooler line is an exclusive creation of Caucus Cooler and will be updated as the political environment changes.
    It is an unscientific assessment of the Iowa Caucus (not the Presidential race as a whole) from an insiders view at the given time. The line IS NOW mathematically accurate but is NOT intended for gambling purposes. Information may only be reproduced with credit to the Caucus Cooler.