Welcome BACK to the premiere Iowa Caucus Blog. You go to the water cooler to catch up on office gossip and now you can go to the Caucus Cooler to catch up on Presidential gossip. Pull up a chair, grab your dixie cup and bottoms up.
posted by Caucus Cooler at 2/22/2007
The Cooler Line
Mike Huckabee 10-9
Mitt Romney 3-1
Fred Thompson 9-1
John McCain 9-1
Rudy Giuliani 12-1
Ron Paul 12-1
Duncan Hunter 98-1
The Cooler line is an exclusive creation of Caucus Cooler and will be updated as the political environment changes.
It is an unscientific assessment of the Iowa Caucus (not the Presidential race as a whole) from an insiders view at the given time. The line IS NOW mathematically accurate but is NOT intended for gambling purposes. Information may only be reproduced with credit to the Caucus Cooler.
26 Comments:
You guys crack me up. How about posting Rudy Giuliani's poll number dominating the field in Iowa? I know, Mitt came in 4th.
If Rudy is so dominating why does he not come to Iowa? Or anywhere for that matter? Is it perhaps because he knows the second he gets here and opens his mouth the ride will be over. Polls this early only, ONLY, represent name ID.
Cooler = Lame
Mitt is 4th in polls, first on Cooler line. Rudy is first, third on Cooler line.
McCain gets Cooler road-head, sans expectations, go go go.
C'mon guys this thread is supposed to be about Brownback's revolutionary position as the anti-slavery candidate. Surely this is going to set him apart form the rest of the field.
Down with slavery!!!!!
texas_tyrant8
what poll is everyone talking about? can you repost it?
PRESIDENT - IOWA - GOP PRIMARY
Rudy Giuliani 29%
John McCain 22%
Newt Gingrich 11%
Mitt Romney 9%
Chuck Hagel 5%
Tommy Thompson 3%
Tom Tancredo 2%
Sam Brownback 2%
Mike Huckabee 2%
Jim Gilmore 1%
Duncan Hunter 1%
PRESIDENT - CALIFORNIA - GOP PRIMARY
Rudy Giulaini 41%
John McCain 17%
Mitt Romney 10%
Duncan Hunter 6%
Sam Brownback 4%
Tom Tancredo 4%
Mike Huckabee 2%
Ron Paul 1%
Jim Gilmore 0%
Why doesn't Rudy go there?
If he had to, he would. In case you did not know, there is going to be a national primary so the important candidates are spending time in important states like California and Florida. Sorry, the Iowa state fair and lunches just are not going to be as important as they once were.
As for Mitt, it's a JOKE he is #1. He has spent so much time and money in Iowa and still remains his 4th.
As for name ID only, that is also laughable. He had a formal announcement and has pretty much lived in Iowa. Also, people actually vote on NAME ID, it's part of it.
PLEASE TAKE MITT OFF #1!!!!
P.S. I am only trying to help your credibility
I second the motion!
8:13 is clearly a Rudy staffer hell bent on making us all annoint his guy without ever taking the time to examine his piss poor record on so many key social issues.
Annoint him? I think quite the opposite is true. You are trying to annoint Romney. America has annointed Rudy, as shown in all of the polls he DOMINATES in.
If you want your ranking to be "people I like most according to social issues," please make it the title. If you ranking is about figuring out the Republican most likely to win the election, you need to take Mitt off of #1.
I only cite Rudy because he is...um.. #1. If it was anyone else, I would be laughing at your rankings the same and telling you to put that person there too.
Like I said, I am doing this for your cred., not mine.
We only anoint at the VOTING booth. But then again Nussle is running Rudy's campaign and he was anointed and that work really well now that we are looking at Fair share, Embryonic stem cell research and bullying bills.
Gingrich doesn't even have a campaign and he would beat Romney.
Polls are the clearest indication as to what will happen at the VOTING booth, that's why so much money is spent on polling. Doesn't seem like a worst thing to base rankings around.
You claim Rudy polls well because of NAME ID. I am about to provide you a FACT that will blow your theory out of the water and leave you without a logical response. GET READY.
About the same percentage of the population has an unfavorable of view of Rudy and Romney. The difference, everyone knows Rudy. I will tell you what the means since you may not be able to figure it out. It means that half of the people who know Romney, don't like him whereas Rudy favorable rating is # 1 of any politican in America.
Before you respond with wait until people get to know Rudy, let me stop you. They already do, especially in the states that are going to matter. Florida, New Jersey, and California votes will vote for Rudy come Feb 5th.
Charlie Crist won in FL as a socially moderate candidate, as did Arnold CA.
Also, Romney has been around longer than Obama. Obama doesn't have to blame poor poll results on low name id.
Game-set-match- thanks for the debate
OK...Let's use a state will matter, take California... he polls at 41%
100 people
Rudy is at 41%
20% will stay with him regardless of learning that info info.
He is at 8% with that base.
Out of the remaining 33%, half split, according to your numbers (which I doubt will happen since security will be #1)
He gets 24.5%
Split the remaining votes equally with McCain and Romney.
He still creams Romney.
Please just take Romney from #1, just McCain up if you wont put Rudy up.
P.S. Wait until the voters see the video of Romney debating Kennedy and all of his statements from his 2002 run. LOL Talk about voters not knowing.
hey 2:55, you should prolly put that math in an equation and send it to california voters to let them know how they have to vote.
doofus
We can all be sure that California will pick the wrong guy, right?
Yeah, because Iowa is clearly the center of society.
Florida, New Jersey, and California votes will vote for Rudy come Feb 5th.
And with that will come the complete destruction of the Republican Party and the rise of a legitimate conservative third party.
I welcome it.
Mitt should not be # 1 according to:
Policy platform.
Endorsements.
Fundraising.
Nation-wide organization.
Insider buzz.
because....
http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/news_press_release,65207.shtml
Take Mitt down from #1!!!!!!!!!!!!
Cooler, tear down your wall!
Well it's not like the Republicans didn't have their chances...
7:28
umm...that was written (poorly) by the DNC. since when do republicans run from the dnc when they don't like us?
DOOFUS
Ask they 92% of the Republicans that don't vote for Romney in the polls.
Hey;
Mitt's dad was a pretty good governor in the 60's and would have been a good president if he wasn't swiftboated about being brainwashed in Vietnam. Pity, we would have saved the lives of 30,000 soldiers. Mitt is pandereing to the dregs of the party now but he has moderate mormon undergarments!
Sam Brownsback was called the "next door neighbor type" I had a next door neighbor like him once. He was a window peeper and wanted everyone to follow his religion. Old Sam will follow in the footsteps of Bloody John Brown.
Just a lunatic with a small following!
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