Saturday, July 22, 2006

Will it play in Peosta?

The National review delivers a must-read on Rudy's attempts to resonate in Middle-America. (You must pay to view this article, once we get access to the full article, we'll edit.)

Rudy Giuliani became “America’s Mayor” when he confidently took charge after the terrorist attacks of September 11. In the political-leadership sweepstakes, Giuliani is A-number-one, top of the list, king of the hill. But Sinatra’s catchy claim is turned on its head in the presidential sweepstakes: When it comes to winning over GOP primary voters, if you can make it in New York, you can’t make it anywhere.

The piece is subtitled "The Drag on Rudy's Presidential Prospects," referencing Rudy's having been seen at a social party dressed in drag- something that definately does NOT play in Peosta or Peoria. It will be interesting to see how Rudy's proclivity towards social progressivism affects his prospects on Main Streets in Iowa. We at the cooler think it's a big hurdle, but in a field where all the candidates have hurdles, Rudy is definately in the game.

Swallow or Spitzer

There's an issue that's been floated around the Cooler the past few weeks that resurfaced yesterday regarding the New York Governor's race. We at the Cooler don't believe that Governor Pataki's inability to find a suitable successor is an issue for the average caucus goer in Mason City (or maybe more appropriately, Muscatine). Nonetheless, it has to say something about Gov. Pataki as a politician that his coattails were so short and his popularity so dismal in his home state that the race to succeed him could become this much of a blowout.

Granted, New York AG Eliot Spitzer has been running for Governor since his bat mitzvah, and is very popular in the Empire State, but that doesn't excuse Gov. Pataki. Do you think we'd be talking about a Vilsack Presidential bid if Jim Nussle was up 40% in the polls? Doubtful.

Just one factor to keep an eye on as the the fall progresses.

We'll be back over the weekend with another cooler profile and more cooler dish.

Thursday, July 20, 2006


From the Hotline

"Rudy and McCain PAC Numbers
Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's Solutions America PAC raised $1.4 million in June, spend $303K and had $1.4 million in the bank.

Interesting: the PAC said its mega June fundraiser took in $2M. Apparently, some of those checks haven't come in yet. Contributions included $36,000 from employees of Giuliani Partners, $5K from ex NYSE exec Dick Grasso and $2K from ex-Giuliani adviser Ray Harding.

Sen. John McCain's Straight Talk America PAC raised $1.66 million, spent $725K and ended the month with $1.69M.

His disbursement pattern suggests more seed work: contributions were sent to every county party in Alabama and to several more candidates in South Carolina."

We at the cooler don't think those COH figures are relavent at all. Everything we hear points to McCain (in particular) and Rudy having the ability to raise money at will.

We'll have a breakdown of Iowa disbursements and what they mean later in the week.

Wednesday, July 19, 2006

Utah on my mind

It looks as if the Primary calendar will place a lasrge emphasis on 3 western states: Utah, Arizona, and New Mexico...While Utah is thought to be Romney country for obvious reasons, John McCain is not going down without a fight. Utah Governor Jon Huntsman Jr. joined the straight talk express today according to a report by Chris Cilizza and others..

Also, Adding to our Presidential calendar, George Pataki is doing an event for house candidate Tim Morgan as well as Doug Shull when he comes in Mid-August..

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

We're national baby

You know you're starting to penetrate the national conciousness when a liberal rag halfway across the country is ripping you in their editorial page. Congratulations, Governor Romney.

In all seriousness, the Big Dig disaster probably hurts Romney's credibility when it comes to his argument that he's a problem solver (See Salt Lake City Winter Olympics)... It will be interesting to see how (if at all) the Big Dig problems play out in Dubuque, Mason City and Cedar Rapids.

They will come Ray

Quick update on August visits from Presidentials that haven't hit the wire quite yet. Thanks to the folks who wrote into the tip jar, with info on these trips! Keep em coming...

Mitt Romney

July 29- Chairman's Dinner in Cedar Rapids
Mid August- Campaigning with Iowa's next Governor, Jim Nussle
Late August- Evening event with Senate candidate Barbara Blanchard- Sioux City
Late August- (the following morning) Breakfast with Rep. Ralph Watts- (District includes Dallas County, West Des Moines)

George Pataki

August- fundraising for Senator Doug Shull
Shull is currently leaving the Senate to run for the House. He's the House Republicans' best chance for a pickup (sorry Reisetter), as evidenced by his overwhelming fundraising advantage. That should be a fun race.

Newt Gingrich

August 11 (Date unconfirmed)- Event for Jeff Lamberti, attending Iowa State Fair

Bill Frist
July 29 and 30- Events for Mike Whalen and Jim Nussle. He will also help fundraise for Rep. Linda Upmeyer (Garner) and State House Candidate Matt Reisetter (Cedar Falls).

Sam Brownback

August 17- Event for Jeff Lamberti

We'll keep you posted as we get more specific details and if we hear anything out of the other candidates.

Monday, July 17, 2006

The SoCo Dilemma

Yepsen delivered a must-read column on Gov. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas yesterday. He discussed in detail Huckabee’s different brand of social conservatism. While, Huckabee seems to have the moral high ground when it comes to a consistent Christian message; the Cooler is more interested in how this is going to develop from a political standpoint.

When it comes to conservative purity on gay marriage and abortion, Huckabee is in a good position. All five of the candidates ahead of him on the Cooler Line have abortion problems. For certain candidates those problems might be more perceived than anything, but that question is for another day. The fact of the matter is Huckabee is staking his flag square in the middle of the SoCo camp.
What is interesting though is how these SoCo’s will deal with a pro-life, anti-gay marriage, tax and spend Republican. When faced with a choice between candidates, who might not be as pro-life as they’d like, but are committed to cutting taxes and/or reducing spending and Huckabee, we at the Cooler are not sure where they’ll fall. This will be a development we’ll be watching closely as the campaign presses on. Let’s call it the SoCo dilemma.

  • Caucus Coolerisms
  • The Cooler Line

    Mike Huckabee 10-9
    Mitt Romney 3-1
    Fred Thompson 9-1
    John McCain 9-1
    Rudy Giuliani 12-1
    Ron Paul 12-1
    Duncan Hunter 98-1
    The Cooler line is an exclusive creation of Caucus Cooler and will be updated as the political environment changes.
    It is an unscientific assessment of the Iowa Caucus (not the Presidential race as a whole) from an insiders view at the given time. The line IS NOW mathematically accurate but is NOT intended for gambling purposes. Information may only be reproduced with credit to the Caucus Cooler.