Friday, November 10, 2006

McCain Begins Preliminary WH Run

Not suprising to any of us in Iowa. But it's the banner headline on Drudge. McCain to Run.

Line Change!

The 2008 campaign is officially upon us and the Cooler Staff thinks it's time for a line change.

Remember, while the line is mathematically accurate it is not intended for gambling purposes. In addition, the line only reflects the candidates prospects for winning the Iowa Caucus at a given time- NOT the Primary as a whole.

If you want to know who's going to win the whole thing, ask the Hotline or the Gang of 500.

Onto the line changes.

  • Our top two contenders hold their spots as the favorites. Romney with a slight edge over McCain, thanks mostly to McCains snubbing of Iowa in 2000 and Romney's headstart from an organizational standpoint.

    Pataki moves up a notch from 7-1 to 13-2. They had a very good grassroots operation going on in Polk County that we're sure helped them with the grassroots. Kudos to Team Pataki.

    Giuliani also creeps up a notch as rumors of his announcement get louder in Iowa. His staff talked with a number of Iowa operatives during Rudy's whirlwind Nussle tour. Rudy goes from 8-1 to 15-2.

    The field bet drops a bit as the likely contenders emerge. 12-1 to 15-1.

Here come the big changes:

  • George Allen continues his nosedive down the line, after conceding his Senate seat to Jim Webb yesterday (very graciously), Allen drops from 25-1 to 250-1. Exepct him to leave the line all together relatively soon.

    Duncan Hunter and Jim Gilmore also make their debuts on the line. Gilmore has made two trips two Iowa and has Polk County activist Dale Blair on board, and he has been said to be actively recruiting some of the traditional conserverative grassroots in the state.

    Duncan Hunter is a solid conservative and he's an avowed hawk. He is the chairman of the House armed services committee so he has credibility on foreign affairs. He also has been known as a poor fundraiser, not a good quality in a Presidential candidate. Someone close to Hunter in Iowa told us that it would be like the inverse of the Kucinich campaign.

    While Hunter is definately in the race, everything we hear out of Gilmore Iowa people is that he probably is too. So for now, we're bringing them both in the line at the same place. Gilmore 99-1. Hunter 100-1.

    That's all for now.

Thursday, November 09, 2006

POTUS Winners and Losers

Election night 2006 was ugly for Republicans up and down the ballot, but it had some definite implications for the 2008 Presidential wannabees. Let's take a look at some winners and losers.


Rudy Giuliani- With an ugly environment, Rudy looks like a real uniter that can take the Party and the Country out of this funk and into the future. He had an aggressive campaigning session, picking up chits around the country. And spent election eve in Iowa which certainly will be remembered by those that attended. (Those events were spectacular according to all sources). Rudy also dipped his toe in the staffer waters while in town courting some high powered Iowans.

John McCain- Like Giuliani, McCain seems like the kind of candidate that can bridge the gap with the independents that have become disenfranchised from the GOP. McCain also campaigned heavily, picking up chits. And his main allies staved off defeat... i.e. Pawlenty, Crist, and Heather Wilson (maybe). McCain also got his wish with the resignation of Rumsfeld and got some good press over that.

One downside for McCain, the GOP losing the Senate means no Chairmanship of the "powerful" Armed Services Committee.


George Felix Allen- Exit, stage left.

Mitt Romney- In a year where the GOP lost anything, Mitt certainly is not to blame for the 6 Governorships the GOP lost and the "0" pickups. But it certainly didn't help him either. He also was unable to help his chosen successor Kerry Healy into the Governor's Mansion. On the other hand, Romney will be able to sell himself as a Washington "Outsider" which will benefit him given this environment.

Mike Huckabee- If your successor can't even muster a competitive race in a Red state, that's not a very good legacy to leave.


George Pataki- While he also was unable to get his successor elected, Pataki put a lot of effort into the Iowa GOTV program and that will be remembered by activists in Des Moines.

Note that our own Governor would be considered a winner on the Dem side, as he was able to get his chosen successor in office, in a landslide. And he was very active for Culver in the last two weeks of the campaign.

Unfortunately we won't be able to send the intern to Mt. Pleasant for the announcement today. More on Vilsack later.

We apologize for the light coverage over the past week. Expect a reinvigorated Cooler Staff on Monday.

Monday, November 06, 2006


The 21st Century Freedom PAC is advertising on radio in Iowa.

The ad just came over the airwaves at Cooler HQ.. It was on during the Jan Mickelson show on WHO radio.

The ad basically encourages folks to get out and vote, says some nice things about America and then george makes a direct appeal to folks to vote republican tomorrow.

Very interesting timing. We're not sure how much it gains you to be advertising right now, hard to cut through the clutter, but Pataki's got to lay the groundwork somehow.

  • Caucus Coolerisms
  • The Cooler Line

    Mike Huckabee 10-9
    Mitt Romney 3-1
    Fred Thompson 9-1
    John McCain 9-1
    Rudy Giuliani 12-1
    Ron Paul 12-1
    Duncan Hunter 98-1
    The Cooler line is an exclusive creation of Caucus Cooler and will be updated as the political environment changes.
    It is an unscientific assessment of the Iowa Caucus (not the Presidential race as a whole) from an insiders view at the given time. The line IS NOW mathematically accurate but is NOT intended for gambling purposes. Information may only be reproduced with credit to the Caucus Cooler.